Methodology
The framework behind the forecast. Transparent factors, editable weights, and a clear separation between conditions and outcomes.
Conditions, Not Outcomes
The forecast indicates pressure conditions. Outcomes are determined by organisational decisions. Toggle between scenarios to see how the same framework applies across different contexts.
Pressure Factors
Four factors combine to produce the AI Displacement Pressure score.
Automability
How easily can the core tasks of this role be automated with current or near-term AI capabilities?
Leverage Collapse
To what extent does AI erode the traditional value/scarcity premium of this role?
Economic Pressure
How strong are cost reduction incentives affecting this role?
Adoption Speed
How rapidly is AI being adopted in this sector/geography combination?
Durability Factors
Four factors combine to produce the Human Durability score.
Physicality
Does this role require physical presence, manipulation, or context-specific embodiment?
Accountability Risk
Does this role carry legal, ethical, or fiduciary responsibility that requires human ownership?
Relationship Intensity
To what extent does value creation depend on human relationships, trust, and emotional connection?
Novelty Variance
How unpredictable and non-routine are the decisions this role must make?
First Principles
Observatory describes conditions. Organisations create outcomes through decisions. This separation is fundamental to how the system works.
Evidence Layer
The Evidence Radar displays confirmed signals: layoff announcements, restructuring events, and AI-cited workforce changes that have been reviewed and verified.
Key Principle
Evidence informs context. It does not mechanically change condition scores. A high density of evidence signals in a cell indicates that the structural conditions are being expressed in real-world events, but the conditions themselves are determined by the factor model.
All evidence goes through editorial review before appearing on the radar. This ensures quality and prevents noise from distorting the picture.
Transparency Commitments
All factors are visible. Every condition score can be traced back to its component factors.
Weights are editable. Editors can adjust factor weights to reflect regional or sectoral variations.
Evidence is sourced. Every signal on the radar links to its original source.
Changes are logged. Score updates include timestamps and editor attribution.